What is Roth Capital’s Forecast for Progressive Q4 Earnings?

The Progressive Co. (NYSE:PGR) – Investment analysts at Roth Capital increased their Q4 2025 EPS estimates for shares of Progressive in a research note issued on Tuesday, February 25th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now anticipates that the insurance provider will post earnings per share of $3.77 for the quarter, up from their previous forecast of $3.75. The consensus estimate for Progressive’s current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Progressive’s Q1 2026 earnings at $3.60 EPS, Q2 2026 earnings at $3.55 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $3.72 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $3.84 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $14.70 EPS.

PGR has been the subject of a number of other reports. Morgan Stanley increased their price objective on Progressive from $300.00 to $307.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a report on Friday, January 31st. Raymond James upgraded Progressive from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a $305.00 target price for the company in a research report on Thursday, December 26th. Roth Mkm upped their price objective on Progressive from $290.00 to $315.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Tuesday. Hsbc Global Res downgraded shares of Progressive from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, December 10th. Finally, Evercore ISI increased their price objective on Progressive from $277.00 to $285.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday, November 6th. Six research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and thirteen have issued a buy rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Progressive currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $277.59.

Progressive Price Performance

Shares of PGR opened at $279.02 on Wednesday. Progressive has a 12 month low of $186.94 and a 12 month high of $280.25. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a current ratio of 0.31 and a quick ratio of 0.30. The stock has a fifty day moving average price of $249.41 and a 200 day moving average price of $250.50. The company has a market cap of $163.45 billion, a P/E ratio of 19.38, a PEG ratio of 1.70 and a beta of 0.42.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, January 29th. The insurance provider reported $4.08 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.44 by $0.64. Progressive had a net margin of 11.25% and a return on equity of 33.79%.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Vanguard Group Inc. increased its stake in shares of Progressive by 1.1% during the 4th quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 53,400,366 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $12,795,262,000 after purchasing an additional 583,376 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp grew its holdings in Progressive by 1.3% during the third quarter. State Street Corp now owns 24,683,807 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $6,263,763,000 after purchasing an additional 315,411 shares during the period. Geode Capital Management LLC increased its position in Progressive by 1.3% in the fourth quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 14,615,430 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $3,498,363,000 after buying an additional 189,638 shares during the last quarter. FMR LLC raised its stake in shares of Progressive by 1.6% in the third quarter. FMR LLC now owns 10,518,615 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $2,669,204,000 after buying an additional 170,618 shares during the period. Finally, Norges Bank purchased a new position in shares of Progressive during the 4th quarter valued at $1,843,045,000. Institutional investors own 85.34% of the company’s stock.

Insider Activity

In other news, insider Andrew J. Quigg sold 681 shares of Progressive stock in a transaction dated Friday, January 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $242.10, for a total value of $164,870.10. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now directly owns 33,612 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $8,137,465.20. This trade represents a 1.99 % decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, Director Jeffrey D. Kelly sold 10,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, January 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $250.00, for a total transaction of $2,500,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director now owns 27,741 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $6,935,250. The trade was a 26.50 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders sold 46,361 shares of company stock valued at $11,302,675 over the last quarter. 0.34% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Progressive Announces Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, January 16th. Stockholders of record on Thursday, January 9th were paid a dividend of $0.10 per share. This represents a $0.40 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.14%. The ex-dividend date was Friday, January 10th. Progressive’s payout ratio is 2.78%.

Progressive Company Profile

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.