According to the most recent ADP National Employment Report, private hiring in the United States slowed in November, adding only 127,000 jobs. That is roughly 73,000 short of the numbers economist had expected earlier. News from this ADP Research Institute report comes in the midst of one of the most aggressive counter-inflation measures since the 1980s, in hopes to slow down labor market momentum with a rapid, but progressive, interest rate increases.
Indeed, inflation is at a 40-year high, even as rates have fallen (8.2 percent in September and 7.7 percent in October). And now, after four consecutive rate hikes—at 75 basis points apiece—the Fed is focusing on tempering future such increases.
Of the gains that were made in November, most of them were in the leisure and hospitality sector, to the tune of around 224,000 new payroll additions. The industry to add the second-highest number of workers was trade, transportation, and utilities, which added about 62,000. The next-highest sector was education and health services, at a total of 55,000.
On the other hand, some industries lost payroll numbers. The manufacturing industry, for example, fell by about 100,000 workers. Following this was professional and business services declined by about 77,000 payrolls. Financial activities slipped by 34,000 workers.
In terms of size, 100% of November’s job creation additions were from companies which employ between 50 and 499 workers. This sector added 246,000; and, actually, larger companies saw a decline of 68,000 while smaller firms lost 51,000.
But even though job growth in November was pretty lackluster, pay rates did increase again. While the bump in pay for many folks feels a bit robust, November’s 7.6% wage growth actually fell short of October’s 7.7% pace.
This new data comes just days before a highly-anticipated jobs report, one that analysts expect will indicate employers added 200,000 payrolls in November. That is only slightly down from the 261,000 added in October. As a bonus, perhaps, they also expect the unemployment rate will stabilize at 3.7%, at least for now.
The ADP Research Institute’s report takes utilizes finely-analyzed—but totally anonymized, and aggregated—payroll data extracted from 25 million US employees. Collectively, of course, the data provides a comprehensive picture of the overall labor market.
